In building simulation models of pharmaceutical markets over the last fourteen years, one of the biggest changes has involved the availability of data for very large blinded samples of individual patients. In Europe this trend moved somewhat ahead of the United States. But now, the availability of data from managed care organizations, hospitals and large
On advantage of Ventana modeling is a better understanding of the root causes of market dynamics. This allows the models to make contingent predictions of unprecedented or unusual market behavior despite using seemingly ordinary assumptions about future market evolution. One example of this was the predication that the generic form (lovastatin) of a mediocre branded
When the behavior of a pool of customers for a new product is strongly influenced by feedback phenomena, small, almost unobservable changes can signal profound differences in the size of a potential market. One situation in which feedback (chicken-and-egg) phenomena are common is the evolution of an infectious disease. In early 1995 data showed that
For a research pharmaceutical company, Ventana designed and built a decision-support model to help manage the development of a new drug. When the modeling was started, over $120 million was committed to the development of a new drug to better treat a fatal infectious disease. The drug had been under development for two years, and
Starting in 1997 and continuing over more than a decade, Ventana built a number of different models for one of the world’s best known pharmaceuticals companies. These models were designed to make contingent predictions of drug sales using inputs such as the attributes of products and the mix of promotion alternatives available. Several of the
