Stocking Algorithms

For a large and very successful retailer, Ventana evaluated the company’s sales forecasting system, which the retailer believed to be state-of-the-art. By studying the company’s historical sales data and working with the client to understand the data better, we were able to show that assumptions built into the forecasting algorithms were inappropriate. We then showed


Leveraging Individual Patient Data

In building simulation models of pharmaceutical markets over the last fourteen years, one of the biggest changes has involved the availability of data for very large blinded samples of individual patients. In Europe this trend moved somewhat ahead of the United States. But now, the availability of data from managed care organizations, hospitals and large

Sales Growth of Generic Drugs

On advantage of Ventana modeling is a better understanding of the root causes of market dynamics. This allows the models to make contingent predictions of unprecedented or unusual market behavior despite using seemingly ordinary assumptions about future market evolution. One example of this was the predication that the generic form (lovastatin) of a mediocre branded

Feedback in Epidemiology for Market Sizing

When the behavior of a pool of customers for a new product is strongly influenced by feedback phenomena, small, almost unobservable changes can signal profound differences in the size of a potential market.  One situation in which feedback (chicken-and-egg) phenomena are common is the evolution of an infectious disease.  In early 1995 data showed that


Making the Case for Privatizing a Government Function

In the late 1990’s the US Air Force had a strategic initiative called “Flexible Sustainment,” and the pilot aircraft program for introducing this initiative was its C-17 airlifter program. The central idea behind the initiative was that a better partnership between the Air Force and private industry (especially the suppliers of the major airframes) to

Calculating Liability Reserves for Loyalty Programs

The finance department of a large hotel chain was concerned that it was understating the size of the financial liability incurred when it awarded “frequent guest” points that guests could redeem in the future for free room nights. The sales department found its loyalty program very effective in improving business hotel occupancy and revenue, and

Strategic Direction for a Building Industry Consortium

A consortium of building industry professionals formed a corporation to develop innovative housing using seed money from the U.S. Department of Energy, and included Ventana in their strategic planning. At the group’s early strategic planning sessions, consortium members expressed strong convictions about the attributes they wanted their products to have. Their values included a strong sense

Predicting Assembly Learning Rates

After years of difficulty developing its product, a defense contractor finally had the high quality product it had promised the U.S. Government years earlier. Unfortunately, even after the production of several units, its manufacturing cost was far too high. The unit cost was finally starting to come down smartly, but the contractor didn’t know for

Competitive Insurance Pricing

A nonprofit insurer of municipalities and townships was under heavy attack by a commercial insurer offering very low prices for insurance. In five years the competitor had gone from about 10% market share in property & casualty insurance to almost 70% in the nonprofit insurer’s region. Over this period, all other competitors in the region

New Product Decision Process

For a research pharmaceutical company, Ventana designed and built a decision-support model to help manage the development of a new drug. When the modeling was started, over $120 million was committed to the development of a new drug to better treat a fatal infectious disease. The drug had been under development for two years, and